Five Players Who Changed Teams Will Explode in 2026-26: What the Data Says About Tyler Herro, Julius Randle, Kel'el Ware, Kessler, and Norman Powell?

The summer of 2026 witnessed a rare wave of transfers: five players — Tyler Herro, Julius Randle, Kel'el Ware, Walker Kessler, and Norman Powell — seeking new destinations with expectations of significantly expanded roles. My spreadsheet, updated throughout the transfer window, reveals a common thread: all are entering the season with the opportunity to become the first or second offensive option in their new lineups. However, as always, data is never innocent — only its owners are. And the owners of these projections need to be thoroughly verified.

Market Context: Five players, five different stories.

Tyler Herro, 27, joined the Milwaukee Bucks in a shocking trade. Julius Randle, 31, moved to the Brooklyn Nets. Kel'el Ware, 22, is reportedly set to wear the Bucks jersey — an unverified claim that contradicts Herro also arriving in Milwaukee. Walker Kessler is rumored to have signed a contract extension with the Los Angeles Lakers — this information has not been officially confirmed. Norman Powell, 33, landed with the Chicago Bulls.

Based on my experience following games from last season, I notice a recurring pattern: rebuilding teams often grant significant opportunities to newcomers, while championship contenders tend to tighten roles. This creates a major difference in how projections should be made.

Detailed case-by-case analysis:

Tyler Herro — Milwaukee Bucks: Is he truly the number one option?

Herro has maintained an average of 20 points per game for five consecutive seasons with the Miami Heat. His usage rate (USG%) stands at 25% — a solid but not superstar-level figure. In Milwaukee, the presence of Giannis Antetokounmpo and Damian Lillard raises a big question: will Herro actually receive the 30% USG that the original article predicts?

I have witnessed teams with three stars simultaneously struggle with ball distribution. The Bucks last season showed signs of inconsistency when both Giannis and Lillard shared the court. Adding Herro to that mix does not automatically create a more efficient offensive machine — it could create a spacing mess.

Julius Randle — Brooklyn Nets: A rebirth opportunity or a familiar trap?

Randle averaged 23.3 points per game over his final four seasons with the New York Knicks. That is an impressive figure. But his turnover rate has always been alarming — more than 3.5 turnovers per 36 minutes. On a young team like the Nets, where there is no immediate win-now pressure, Randle could be given freedom to express himself. However, the presence of Michael Porter Jr. in the lineup raises questions about ball-sharing between two ball-dominant forwards.

Kel'el Ware — Milwaukee Bucks: Small sample, big expectations

Ware averaged 12.8 points and 10.7 rebounds in 34 starts last season. A small but promising sample size. However, his reported move to the Bucks — if accurate — means competing with Kyle Kuzma for the starting spot. Can Ware surpass Kuzma to claim the starting role? My data suggests the probability is only moderate, not as high as the original article suggests.

Walker Kessler — Los Angeles Lakers: The missing defensive piece?

Kessler — if he actually joins the Lakers — would be a quality addition to the defense. With 2.4 blocks per game and a TS% of 66%, he is one of the most efficient defensive centers in the league. The partnership with Luka Doncic in pick-and-roll situations is an intriguing prospect. But I must emphasize: this information has not been officially confirmed, and if based on a false rumor, the entire analysis collapses.

Norman Powell — Chicago Bulls: Can efficiency be maintained when volume increases?

Powell boasts an impressive 62% TS% from last season — a top-20 figure in the league. But at age 33, can he maintain that efficiency when becoming the number one offensive option? History shows that efficient scorers in supporting roles often struggle when volume increases. Powell has never been a number one option in his career.

Contrarian View: The blind spot of the "expanded role" narrative

The official story the original article tells is: these five players will explode because their roles are expanded. But my spreadsheet tells a different story. The truth is, none of these teams — except possibly the Nets — are truly ready to hand over the entire offensive keys to a newly arrived player.

The Bucks remain Giannis's team. The Lakers remain Luka's team. The Bulls are rebuilding and could trade Powell before the deadline if he performs well. Only the Nets and Randle have the perfect combination of need and opportunity.

Lesson from the summer of 2026: When Courtois moved to Real Madrid, I learned that data is never innocent. Similarly, these projections should be viewed as optimistic ceilings, not baselines. Watch the first 20 games of the season for clearer signals.

Conclusion: Let the spreadsheet lead the way

Thirty deals in one summer, each line a promise — I still keep them for reference. These five players have potential, but potential is not a guarantee. Monitor Herro's usage rate after 10 games, Randle's turnover rate, Ware's starting status, Kessler's minutes, and Powell's shot attempts. The data will give you the most accurate answers.