Inside Steiner's Prediction: Why Verstappen Could Go Winless in 2026

Inside Steiner's Prediction: Why Verstappen Could Go Winless in 2026

On the latest episode of the Red Flags Podcast, Guenther Steiner said the thing the paddock has been avoiding. Asked about Max Verstappen and the 2026 season, the former Haas principal did not say "maybe" or "I'm worried." He said: "He's not good enough. He will be Super Max, he will be on the podium, but I think that's the limit." The clip was cut, shared within hours, and by Monday it was on every F1 outlet in the UK.

I opened my own self-built data sheet, updated through the Spanish GP in Madrid. Verstappen sits sixth on 145 points, 147 behind the leader. He has three second places: Austria, Hungary, Spain. Not a single win. The numbers match Steiner. But how they match, and why, is what kept me up two nights with a stale coffee and a spreadsheet.

Every tactical diagram starts as a shaky hand-drawn line on PowerPoint. My line this time starts in Madrid. It leads somewhere most coverage refuses to spell out: Red Bull's problem is not aerodynamic. It runs deeper, into something only those who have read the 2026 rules closely will recognise - deployment.

Context: A handover nobody saw coming

The 2026 cycle is Formula 1's biggest rules reset in over a decade. The new hybrid power unit splits roughly 50/50 between combustion and electrical, the MGU-H is gone entirely, and fuel must be 100 percent sustainable. Anyone who has watched F1 long enough knows this pattern: every rules change shuffles the order.

It has shuffled. Mercedes, with Kimi Antonelli, leads. McLaren, with Lando Norris, is right behind. And Red Bull, the team that dominated the ground-effect era from 2026 to 2026, sits at the top of the group that cannot win.

Red Bull has not collapsed. They still podium regularly, still keep Verstappen in the top six. But they are losing roughly 0.2 to 0.4 seconds per lap to Mercedes and McLaren. That is the gap between podium and win, between "Super Max" and "Max of 2026."

What Steiner actually said

Read the Steiner quote correctly. "He's not good enough" sounds like a swipe at Verstappen. But place it beside the next sentence and the meaning inverts. "He will be Super Max, he will be on the podium, but I think that's the limit." Where is the limit? In the driver, or in the car?

Steiner is explicit later: "It's just the car." So "not good enough" is rhetorical, not a verdict on ability. Misread it, and Steiner becomes a Verstappen sceptic. Read it correctly, and he becomes a sceptic of Red Bull Powertrains.

Inside the problem: deployment, not aero

After Madrid, Verstappen gave his press interview. He spoke of "a mix of things." One phrase I rewound three times: "maybe a little bit of deployment." Read casually, it is a safe answer from a driver dodging blame. Read with the 2026 rules in mind, it is the most dangerous sentence he could say publicly.

Deployment is how a hybrid system manages and releases electrical energy over a lap. Under the new rules, a 50/50 split means poor deployment costs time on every straight. Deployment is a power-unit problem, not an aero one. That matters because Red Bull Powertrains is building its own engine for the first time, with Ford. Those systems take 18 to 24 months to mature, and PU homologation limits mid-season structural change.

A bad pass is not a mistake. It is data the system is trying to send you. Verstappen's "a little bit of deployment" is exactly that kind of pass, aimed at anyone who can read it.

Madrid: a result better than the car

Lando Norris started from pole and led until a VSC window coincided with a slow McLaren pit stop. When he rejoined, Verstappen had the lead. From there, Madrid's near-total lack of overtaking made track position decisive. Verstappen defended. P2.

This is the "result better than the car" pattern I always flag. On an overtaking-friendly circuit, Norris takes the place back. On Madrid, he cannot. I do not file results like this under "positive signal."

Three second places, no win

The distribution matters more than the count. Austria, Hungary, Spain, all mid-European season. The car looks like a development plateau, not a shrinking gap. I call it a "podium ceiling" - a car whose architecture caps the world's best driver at P2.

Verstappen: still the best, in a car that isn't good enough

There is no evidence the driver is slowing. Three P2s from a car Steiner calls non-competitive is elite conversion. His measured public tone protects the team. But historically, a sustained winless run is the strongest precursor to transfer speculation. His tone is the signal to watch.

The contrarian angle

I agree with Steiner's headline conclusion. I disagree with his framing. "It's just the car" understates a chain of systemic decisions across three years. And Steiner is a media personality now, offering opinion, not insider reporting. If I had to bet on a data scenario against this prediction, I would bet on deployment - a calibration fix could close the gap in two to three races.

What to watch from Baku

Three signals: Red Bull's pace at overtaking-friendly circuits from Azerbaijan (24-26 September); Verstappen's post-race tone; and any PU token usage. And a fourth: McLaren's pit-stop discipline. A repeat would turn an accident into a pattern.

Transition is not a run of laps. It is the silence between two intentions that few can read.

If Verstappen wins once, the winless story collapses overnight. If he does not, the real question is not why, but how many seasons Red Bull needs to fix a power-unit problem. In a new regulation cycle, that answer is often two, sometimes three. For a 28-year-old at his peak, two years is a very long time.