Chase Kendall: Verbal Commitment to Cincinnati and the Race for Big 12 Scoring

15:37.60. That number placed Chase Kendall in the top 26 at Winter Juniors East, yet nearly a minute behind the elite distance swimming group in the United States. In the eyes of most, that is an impressive record for a high school athlete. In my eyes, it is a piece of a much larger picture – a picture drawn by data, curves, and time.

Numbers never lie, but they know how to hide. Today, I want to dissect Chase Kendall's verbal commitment to the University of Cincinnati, to show that the important thing is not the number 15:37.60, but how that number was created, and where it will lead.

Context: Verbal Commitment and the NCAA Recruitment System

Kendall, a junior (entering college in 2027), has officially announced he will join Cincinnati's men's swim team in fall 2027. This is a significant milestone, but it must be understood correctly: a verbal commitment is not a binding contract. According to NCAA rules, only when an athlete signs the National Letter of Intent (NLI) – expected in November 2026 – everything becomes official.

Cincinnati is a Division I Mid-Major program competing in the Big 12 Conference. At the 2026 Big 12 Championships, the men's team placed 6th out of 7. That is a modest position, but it is also a springboard: when a program is being rebuilt, newcomers like Kendall have the chance to compete for spots from day one – something that would not happen at a Power 5 school.

Data Analysis: From Speaking Numbers

The original SwimSwam article provides a series of notable achievements from the 2026-26 season:

• Dropped more than 20 seconds in the 1650-yard freestyle (from 15:58+ to 15:37.60)
• Dropped nearly 10 seconds in the 500-yard freestyle (from 4:39+ to 4:29.79)
• Dropped about 4.5 seconds in the 200-yard freestyle
• At the Florida Senior Championships in March 2026: 4th in the 500 free (4:32.57, prelims 4:29.79) and 4th in the 1650 free (15:38.06)
• 400 IM performance: 4:04.70 (final), prelims 4:01.02
• At the FHSAA Class 3A state meet, he posted 1:57.96 in the 200 IM, showing versatility

Immediately, I notice a pattern: the improvement in the 500 and 200 is relatively larger than in the 1650. This suggests not only the development of an aerobic base – which helps longer distances – but also a change in pacing strategy and the ability to sustain a higher average speed.

For instance, if he lost about 1.2 seconds per 100 yards in the 1650 (average time reduction), then in the 500 he dropped 2 seconds per 100 yards. That means Kendall has learned how to swim faster in middle distances, possibly through improved stroke rate or propulsive efficiency. This is a sign of a smart training plan, not just physiological maturation.

But the data also hides a subtle signal: in the 500 free prelims at Florida, Kendall went 4:29.79, then 4:32.57 in the final – nearly 3 seconds slower. This could be due to saving energy for later events, or accumulated fatigue. For a distance swimmer, this is worth monitoring: if finals are always slower than prelims, it's a matter of endurance and pacing.

His 400 IM time of 4:01.02 (prelims) is also a valuable variable. Compared to his freestyle times, Kendall's IM is on par with some specialists in the 400 free. This means he could be developed into an IM/distance hybrid, increasing his value for Cincinnati's medley relays. A smart coach will exploit this.

System: The Race to the Big 12

Cincinnati resides in the Big 12, but the dynamics of this conference are shifting dramatically. Texas – the dominant swimming program in the Big 12 for decades – has departed to join the SEC in the 2026-25 season. That departure significantly weakens the overall level of the Big 12, opening opportunities for programs like Cincinnati to rise.

Based on my experience following meets, I notice: a team finishing 6th/7th when Texas was around is one thing; after Texas leaves, the gap is enormous. If Cincinnati can recruit athletes like Kendall, their position can improve markedly over the next 2-3 years.

Specifically, the scoring thresholds at Big 12 2026: 200 free needed 1:36.75, 500 free needed 4:27.57. Kendall currently has 1:42.70 in the 200 and 4:29.79 in the 500. So, he is only 2.22 seconds away from the 500 free threshold – a gap within the reach of a developing athlete. His 1650 free (15:37.60) would definitely score if similar cutoffs apply. Thus, let's be direct: Kendall will be a useful asset immediately in his freshman year if he continues his trajectory.

Contrarian View: Don't Look at Rankings, Look at the Curve

People look at value tables; I look at curves. Many deals die before they are announced. But here, what matters is not that Cincinnati got an average-above-average swimmer, but that they got an athlete with a phenomenal improvement rate in one season.

The story of Chase Kendall reminds me of how I analyzed data from V-League 2026. At that time, I found that Long An scored more goals than their xG predicted. I wrote a blog warning they would be relegated. People called me heartless. But at the end of the season, Long An finished last. The truth is: data cannot hide forever.

Now, look at Kendall's 20-second improvement in the 1650. That's a large number, but still within physiological bounds for a high school junior going through maturation. If this improvement sustains another season, he will hit 15:15 – a mark where Power 5 programs start to pay attention. But if it was a one-time surge, his true value is just as a Big 12 scorer.

The tactical blind spot the media misses: Kendall's 200 free (1:42.70) is far off the scoring threshold (1:36.75). This shows he is a distance-oriented swimmer, lacking sprint ability. However, in relays, if placed correctly, his 200 split can improve. A good coach won't force him to focus on the 200 but will concentrate on the 500 and 1650, while using him in the 4x200 relay.

Governance and Risk: From Verbal to Signed

A verbal commitment is a smart move, but not binding. Kendall can change his mind if a better offer comes, or Cincinnati can withdraw. This risk is low given the current situation, but still must be considered.

Under NCAA rules, until he signs the NLI, he is not officially an athlete of the school. The window from now to November 2026 is delicate. In the past, there have been broken verbal commitments, causing damage to both sides. But based on how Kendall publicly announced and the program's reception, I believe the chance of keeping the commitment is over 80%.

If all goes well, he will have two full seasons of training before his first Big 10 meet (February 2028). That's enough time to improve by a few more seconds. More importantly, on a rebuilding program, he won't be pressured to score immediately – he can swim in secondary events, gain experience, and break through in year two or three.

Big Picture: US College Swimming and the Power Shift

The United States has a deep talent development system: from high school meets, to clubs, to NCAA. Kendall – with a Winter Juniors qualifying standard – belongs to the third or fourth tier of national talent, behind Summer Juniors and national-level swimmers. He is not a raw gem that top schools chase, but a perfect fit for a mid-tier program.

Choosing Cincinnati over trying to walk on at a Power 5 school shows very pragmatic thinking. At schools like Texas, Cal, Florida, the distance roster is packed; a freshman going 15:37 would be invisible. But at Cincinnati, he has the chance to compete from day one and develop without the pressure of immediate results.

Teams don't collapse overnight. They collapse when the metrics stop connecting. Here, Kendall's metrics are connecting perfectly: growth rate, versatility, and the strategic choice of a suitable program. This is completely different from chasing the prestige of a famous school.

Conclusion: The Real Signal for the Future

Chase Kendall is not a name that will shake US swimming in 2027. But if you look at his trajectory – more than 20 seconds improved in the 1650, nearly 10 in the 500, and the presence of a solid IM base – you'll see an athlete heading in the right direction.

The biggest question is not "Is Kendall fast enough?" but "Can his improvement rate last for another two seasons?" If yes, Cincinnati is getting a reliable Big 12 scorer for years. If not, they still have an excellent relay swimmer.

The numbers have spoken. Do you listen, or do you watch?